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Fed’s Reaction To The Sub Prime Mortgage Situation By Armand Glans It didn’t take long until FED acted and that will in the short term take away some of the stress the market feel regarding the mortgage situation. FED cut the level of interest with 50 points for banks and other players in the financial market. At this stage the market fear that the companies will have there investments costs rapidly increasing cause the revaluation of risks and the last couple of years historically very low spreads on lending. The fact is that the last couple of years the mortgage situation been the same for all companies regardless what the books look like, the last couple of month that been changing and that will only hit companies with weak balance sheet.
The market will probably have some insecurity and volatility will probably be a theme the next couple of month before the market and the global economy completely get into the fact of an environment with higher interests, that move might take some time longer cause the problems in the credit market.
Something of great importance is that FED, Bank of England and others the last couple of years been very independent in there work of protecting the growth and keeping the inflation within stated goals which has been helping the market to sustain in this long period of strong economic growth. This independence will further on be important to increase the possibility for FED and others to act quick and powerful.
What the market hoping for at this stage is that the FED will cut interest at there next meeting to help the mortgage situation not going out of control. At the moment there is difficult to see the consequences of the sub prime mortgage situation world wide, but so far a couple of hedgefunds been closing down and some financial institutions going out of business or are under pressure. Among hedgefunds closing down two Bearn Stearns with a 15 times gearing going under, that fact says more about the great risks investors taking than what problems the sub prime mortgage situation have been causing.
The probability that FED will decrease interest on there next meeting have the last couple of weeks been rapidly increasing but is far from being sure. FED is still focusing on job growth and inflation and there seems to be possible regarding both the weakness of job growth and the low inflation that an
increase of interest will come sooner rather than later.
Companies taking a hit the last couple of weeks and still are under pressure are banks and financial institution cause there overall exposure in the mortgage sector. A qualified guess is that there is in that sector there will be a strong move on the upside as soon as the insecurity in the mortgage situation is gone. What to look at is companies within the banking sector is companies with low exposure and risks in the mortgage portfolio and strong balance sheets.
The next couple of weeks will probably be good timing for going long or just taking short positions and taking gain in the volatility the market will provide in the next couple of month.
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